The next few weeks will be critical for the Republican and Democratic nominees. We will have to wait and see who steps up and who will falter as the Republican and Democratic nominees are chosen in February. I think both races are going to be very close. There are many worthy and deserving presidential candidates for both the Republican and Democratic party. It will be fun to watch and see how everything ends up in 2008. -Sunny Desai
USA Today
Dec. 26, 2007 02:03 PM
Don't blink.
Candidates often call the presidential race a marathon, but the next six weeks are going to be a sprint that may well determine the Democratic and Republican nominees.
Never in modern times have the nominations in both parties been so up for grabs at the beginning of an election year.
And never before have the primaries and caucuses started so early or followed one another so soon.
Unexpected events surely will intervene - a scandal, a gaffe, a candidate's scream -- but here are nine key moments coming up in the next six weeks, and why they'll matter.
"Forty percent of (GOP) caucusgoers will be evangelicals, and on top of that another 40 percent will be people in agreement on practically every issue, from the life issue to the marriage issue," says Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, referring to opposition to abortion and same-sex unions.
The social conservatives who have become the most reliable GOP voters nationally are more dominant in Iowa than in any other early state. In 2000, the party's last contested caucuses here, nearly 40 percent identified themselves in surveys as members of "the religious right."
At stake this time is whether former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney - who has wooed social conservatives with millions of dollars in TV ads and stops in all 99 counties by the "Mitt Mobile," a Winnebago driven by son Josh - has overcome qualms about his Mormon religion and his conversion from supporting abortion rights to opposing them.
Coming on strong is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister who describes himself as a "Christian leader." The winner undoubtedly will claim to be the conservative alternative to former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose support of abortion rights puts him at odds with many conservative Christians.
This time, only five days separate the caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the shortest interval ever. Efforts to undercut Iowa's influence by crowding the early primaries calendar only seem to have made the caucuses more critical.
For former North Carolina senator John Edwards, who has been campaigning more or less steadily in Iowa since 2002, anything short of a win will raise questions about whether he can continue. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who early in the year sent mixed signals about how seriously she would compete here, is now locked in a fierce battle with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. In her favor: An endorsement by the influential Des Moines Register.
A victory by Clinton could smooth her way in New Hampshire - a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll there in mid-December showed her and Obama tied, 32 percent-32 percent - and make her difficult to beat for the nomination. No Democrat has won both states and then lost the nomination.
However, political scientist Christopher Hull, author of a new book titled Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents, warns that a loss to Obama in Iowa would pierce Clinton's claim that she is the most electable Democratic contender. In six statewide polls taken over the past two weeks, collected by RealClearPolitics.com, Clinton led in three, Obama in three.
For the winner, Iowa delivers what Hull dubs "e-mentum," a surge of media attention and money. Internet-based fundraising makes it easier for candidates to capitalize on the flood of financial contributions that follow.
"If there are any indications in the employment report that the economy is softening, I think probably the No. 1 issue will be middle-class anxieties," says Al From, chairman of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). He says the subprime mortgage crisis and the rise in energy costs fueled "a lot of recession talk" among voters even when many economists saw the fundamentals as strong.
Now, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, among others, is warning that the risks of a recession are "clearly rising" as the economy gets "close to stall speed."
Many Democrats had expected the situation in Iraq to dominate the campaign agenda in 2008, but pocketbook concerns are rivaling the war. "I'm not sure the war has receded so much, but worries about the economy have deepened," says Bruce Reed, president of the DLC and a policy aide to Bill Clinton when he tapped economic unease in the 1992 campaign. "The economy, stupid," was a reminder on the wall of Clinton's campaign headquarters in Little Rock.
This time, "concerns about the housing market hit home in a way nothing else does," Reed says.
The shift in topics could be helpful for John Edwards, who has struck a populist chord about strains on working people, and a hurdle for Rudy Giuliani. His candidacy has been based in large part on his muscular stance against terrorism.
This time, the rapid-fire schedule may prompt them to stick around for today's primary in New Hampshire.
"There's no harm in going another five days," says Tom Rath, a longtime member of the Republican National Committee from New Hampshire who is supporting Mitt Romney. That would postpone what he calls "the parade of sad news conferences" by vanquished contenders.
Large fields of candidates still may crowd the stage at back-to-back televised debates scheduled in Manchester on Jan. 5. After the New Hampshire primary results come in, however, both fields are likely to be winnowed.
Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have the financial backing and campaign infrastructures to continue even if they have disappointing starts.
The other contenders presumably need some show of strength in Iowa or New Hampshire to have any realistic shot at the nomination.
Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani plans to bide his time until the Florida primary on Jan. 29, and Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson see a Southern showdown coming Jan. 19 in South Carolina.
For two major contenders, though, victories in New Hampshire could be critical: Romney, especially if he doesn't win Iowa, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has devoted most of his time and resources to New Hampshire. In 2000, his victory over George W. Bush here jump-started his presidential prospects.
New Hampshire's primary also could offer a small window into the general election: Independents can vote in either party's contest. Where do they go?
"We're a state that will make the correction if Iowa and New Hampshire have done something wrong ... or put a tremendous exclamation mark beside someone who's the leader," says GOP state Chairman Katon Dawson.
In 2000, George W. Bush crushed Arizona Sen. John McCain in the Palmetto State after McCain's victory in New Hampshire. South Carolina relishes rough-and-tumble politics, as McCain discovered when he had to combat shadowy rumors about his family and military service.
"There isn't a place that gets any bloodier than presidential politics here," Dawson says.
Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson hopes to score his first victory in South Carolina, but his standing has ebbed as Mike Huckabee's support has risen.
Statewide polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.com show Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and McCain all with support in double digits. A potentially critical Republican debate is scheduled in Myrtle Beach on Jan. 10.
"I see South Carolina as the make-it-or-break-it state on the Republican side," says independent analyst Charlie Cook of "The Cook Political Report." A victory would boost any of the candidates, he says. A loss could be devastating for the southerners, Huckabee and Thompson.
But in South Carolina, they make up about half of the Democratic electorate. It is the only early state in which blacks - the Democratic Party's most reliable supporters nationally - hold so much sway.
Barack Obama, the black contender with the most credible chance of winning a presidential nomination in U.S. history, drew 29,000 people when he campaigned in South Carolina in December with Oprah Winfrey.
The concerns of African-Americans will be center stage today at a Democratic debate in Myrtle Beach that is co-sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus and CNN. The primary follows five days later.
Obama can't count on automatically carrying African-American votes, which also are being targeted by Hillary Rodham Clinton. "Black women are 60 percent of the black vote, and they may be black, but they're also women," says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank. "Being a woman is just as salient a feature of anybody's life as being African-American."
Both contenders are highly regarded by black voters. In a survey by the Joint Center in October and November, Obama was viewed "quite favorably" by 74 percent of African-Americans. Clinton won the top rating from even more, 83 percent.
Will it work? "It relies on a split verdict in the first few primaries," says Frank Donatelli, a former White House political director for President Reagan who backs John McCain. If Mitt Romney sweeps the first two states -something no Republican has ever done - he would be hard to stop.
Giuliani's strategy was borne of necessity: Neither rural Iowa nor flinty New Hampshire, with the governor from neighboring Massachusetts in the contest, seemed promising territory for the Brooklyn native.
He's hedged his bet a bit, campaigning in the early states to avoid a humiliating showing. "A couple of third or second places is a lot better than fifth," Donatelli says.
President Bush's State of the Union address the night before could focus attention on terrorism. That is Giuliani's favorite topic.
At this point, money matters: Grass-roots campaigning and momentum can carry a candidate through Iowa and New Hampshire, but on Feb. 5, 22 states are holding contests.
There's no longer enough time or money to hold long conversations with voters. Thirty-second TV ads are likely to rule.
"It's going to be closing-of-the-sale type arguments (for those who have won early contests) or a last-ditch effort to trip up front-runners" by those who haven't, says Evan Tracey, CEO of the media-tracking firm TNSMI/CMAG.
Republican Ron Paul is newly flush; the long shot remains in single digits in national polls but reports raising about $17 million in the fourth quarter of 2007, most of it over the Internet.
With no precedent of a single day with so many primaries, campaign strategists are struggling to figure out which states to target, and how. Included are some of the nation's most expensive media markets in California and the Northeast. One option: Ads on cable TV or syndicated radio programs that offer a nationwide audience.
And will any campaign sink millions into a Super Bowl XLII ad on Sunday, Feb. 3?
No one is likely to be saving for the future, Tracey says. He offers a ballpark estimate of $50 million to $60 million in ads targeting Feb. 5 states.
"There's definitely a you-can't-take-it-with-you, one-day-sale type dynamic," he says.
This time, 22 states from every region of the country have moved their contests up to Feb. 5, the first date the parties permit them to use without penalty. That's so many contests that the old "super" label no longer seems sufficient. Feb. 5 has been dubbed, among other things, as "Tsunami Tuesday" for the flood of results that may well sweep the political landscape. For some candidates, it could amount to a double or nothing bet.
"Super-Duper Tuesday is everything," says Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist who ran Al Gore's 2000 campaign. She calls it "the key strategic moment" that will cap "the most intense month in American politics" - until, presumably, the last month of the general election campaign in October. Republicans will debate in California on Jan. 30; Democrats on Jan. 31.
Divided results could keep the nominations roiling for weeks or months, prompting a pitched delegate-by-delegate fight. But history suggests that a candidate in each party is likely to win decisively enough to effectively seal the nomination, even if a rival or two continues to campaign.
If the winners are clear, brace yourself: The earliest and shortest battle for the nominations in modern times will give way to the longest general-election campaign in U.S. history.
Candidates often call the presidential race a marathon, but the next six weeks are going to be a sprint that may well determine the Democratic and Republican nominees.
Never in modern times have the nominations in both parties been so up for grabs at the beginning of an election year.
 | |
And never before have the primaries and caucuses started so early or followed one another so soon.
Unexpected events surely will intervene - a scandal, a gaffe, a candidate's scream -- but here are nine key moments coming up in the next six weeks, and why they'll matter.
Dec. 30 Seeking the blessing of Christians
On the final Sunday before the Iowa caucuses, count on the Republican presidential candidates to be saying a prayer - perhaps with the congregations at big Christian churches such as Point of Grace in Waukee or the Morningside Assembly of God in Sioux City."Forty percent of (GOP) caucusgoers will be evangelicals, and on top of that another 40 percent will be people in agreement on practically every issue, from the life issue to the marriage issue," says Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, referring to opposition to abortion and same-sex unions.
The social conservatives who have become the most reliable GOP voters nationally are more dominant in Iowa than in any other early state. In 2000, the party's last contested caucuses here, nearly 40 percent identified themselves in surveys as members of "the religious right."
At stake this time is whether former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney - who has wooed social conservatives with millions of dollars in TV ads and stops in all 99 counties by the "Mitt Mobile," a Winnebago driven by son Josh - has overcome qualms about his Mormon religion and his conversion from supporting abortion rights to opposing them.
Coming on strong is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister who describes himself as a "Christian leader." The winner undoubtedly will claim to be the conservative alternative to former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose support of abortion rights puts him at odds with many conservative Christians.
Jan. 3 Iowa likely to make or break Edwards
The Iowa Democratic caucuses tonight typically don't settle nominations, but they often do shape the race, giving a boost to those who finish better than expected and a blow to those who do worse.This time, only five days separate the caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the shortest interval ever. Efforts to undercut Iowa's influence by crowding the early primaries calendar only seem to have made the caucuses more critical.
For former North Carolina senator John Edwards, who has been campaigning more or less steadily in Iowa since 2002, anything short of a win will raise questions about whether he can continue. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who early in the year sent mixed signals about how seriously she would compete here, is now locked in a fierce battle with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. In her favor: An endorsement by the influential Des Moines Register.
A victory by Clinton could smooth her way in New Hampshire - a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll there in mid-December showed her and Obama tied, 32 percent-32 percent - and make her difficult to beat for the nomination. No Democrat has won both states and then lost the nomination.
However, political scientist Christopher Hull, author of a new book titled Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents, warns that a loss to Obama in Iowa would pierce Clinton's claim that she is the most electable Democratic contender. In six statewide polls taken over the past two weeks, collected by RealClearPolitics.com, Clinton led in three, Obama in three.
For the winner, Iowa delivers what Hull dubs "e-mentum," a surge of media attention and money. Internet-based fundraising makes it easier for candidates to capitalize on the flood of financial contributions that follow.
Jan. 4
Jobs report could redirect strategies
The year's first major economic report is the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, out today."If there are any indications in the employment report that the economy is softening, I think probably the No. 1 issue will be middle-class anxieties," says Al From, chairman of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). He says the subprime mortgage crisis and the rise in energy costs fueled "a lot of recession talk" among voters even when many economists saw the fundamentals as strong.
Now, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, among others, is warning that the risks of a recession are "clearly rising" as the economy gets "close to stall speed."
Many Democrats had expected the situation in Iraq to dominate the campaign agenda in 2008, but pocketbook concerns are rivaling the war. "I'm not sure the war has receded so much, but worries about the economy have deepened," says Bruce Reed, president of the DLC and a policy aide to Bill Clinton when he tapped economic unease in the 1992 campaign. "The economy, stupid," was a reminder on the wall of Clinton's campaign headquarters in Little Rock.
This time, "concerns about the housing market hit home in a way nothing else does," Reed says.
The shift in topics could be helpful for John Edwards, who has struck a populist chord about strains on working people, and a hurdle for Rudy Giuliani. His candidacy has been based in large part on his muscular stance against terrorism.
Jan. 8 For those who falter, another chance to stay in the race
In past years, some candidates have dropped out after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses.This time, the rapid-fire schedule may prompt them to stick around for today's primary in New Hampshire.
"There's no harm in going another five days," says Tom Rath, a longtime member of the Republican National Committee from New Hampshire who is supporting Mitt Romney. That would postpone what he calls "the parade of sad news conferences" by vanquished contenders.
Large fields of candidates still may crowd the stage at back-to-back televised debates scheduled in Manchester on Jan. 5. After the New Hampshire primary results come in, however, both fields are likely to be winnowed.
Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have the financial backing and campaign infrastructures to continue even if they have disappointing starts.
The other contenders presumably need some show of strength in Iowa or New Hampshire to have any realistic shot at the nomination.
Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani plans to bide his time until the Florida primary on Jan. 29, and Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson see a Southern showdown coming Jan. 19 in South Carolina.
For two major contenders, though, victories in New Hampshire could be critical: Romney, especially if he doesn't win Iowa, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has devoted most of his time and resources to New Hampshire. In 2000, his victory over George W. Bush here jump-started his presidential prospects.
New Hampshire's primary also could offer a small window into the general election: Independents can vote in either party's contest. Where do they go?
Jan. 19 A rugged proving ground for the Republican contenders
Since 1980, no Republican has been nominated for president without winning the "first-in-the-South" primary in South Carolina, being held today."We're a state that will make the correction if Iowa and New Hampshire have done something wrong ... or put a tremendous exclamation mark beside someone who's the leader," says GOP state Chairman Katon Dawson.
In 2000, George W. Bush crushed Arizona Sen. John McCain in the Palmetto State after McCain's victory in New Hampshire. South Carolina relishes rough-and-tumble politics, as McCain discovered when he had to combat shadowy rumors about his family and military service.
"There isn't a place that gets any bloodier than presidential politics here," Dawson says.
Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson hopes to score his first victory in South Carolina, but his standing has ebbed as Mike Huckabee's support has risen.
Statewide polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.com show Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and McCain all with support in double digits. A potentially critical Republican debate is scheduled in Myrtle Beach on Jan. 10.
"I see South Carolina as the make-it-or-break-it state on the Republican side," says independent analyst Charlie Cook of "The Cook Political Report." A victory would boost any of the candidates, he says. A loss could be devastating for the southerners, Huckabee and Thompson.
Jan. 21 S.C. debate becomes key
Just 2 percent of Iowa's registered voters are African-American. In New Hampshire, they're less than 1 percent.But in South Carolina, they make up about half of the Democratic electorate. It is the only early state in which blacks - the Democratic Party's most reliable supporters nationally - hold so much sway.
Barack Obama, the black contender with the most credible chance of winning a presidential nomination in U.S. history, drew 29,000 people when he campaigned in South Carolina in December with Oprah Winfrey.
The concerns of African-Americans will be center stage today at a Democratic debate in Myrtle Beach that is co-sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus and CNN. The primary follows five days later.
Obama can't count on automatically carrying African-American votes, which also are being targeted by Hillary Rodham Clinton. "Black women are 60 percent of the black vote, and they may be black, but they're also women," says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank. "Being a woman is just as salient a feature of anybody's life as being African-American."
Both contenders are highly regarded by black voters. In a survey by the Joint Center in October and November, Obama was viewed "quite favorably" by 74 percent of African-Americans. Clinton won the top rating from even more, 83 percent.
Jan. 29 Taking aim at big states
Rudy Giuliani is trying to do something no Republican has ever done: Survive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire and claim the GOP nomination with victories later. The former New York City mayor is counting on his appeal in big states such as Florida, which votes today, and New Jersey and California, which vote a week later. He's the only contender who spent much time in December in places such as Illinois and Missouri, aiming for a show of strength on Feb. 5.Will it work? "It relies on a split verdict in the first few primaries," says Frank Donatelli, a former White House political director for President Reagan who backs John McCain. If Mitt Romney sweeps the first two states -something no Republican has ever done - he would be hard to stop.
Giuliani's strategy was borne of necessity: Neither rural Iowa nor flinty New Hampshire, with the governor from neighboring Massachusetts in the contest, seemed promising territory for the Brooklyn native.
He's hedged his bet a bit, campaigning in the early states to avoid a humiliating showing. "A couple of third or second places is a lot better than fifth," Donatelli says.
President Bush's State of the Union address the night before could focus attention on terrorism. That is Giuliani's favorite topic.
Jan. 31 Reports to reveal who'll have staying power
Federal Election Commission reports, due today, will detail campaigns' financial situations as of the end of the year.At this point, money matters: Grass-roots campaigning and momentum can carry a candidate through Iowa and New Hampshire, but on Feb. 5, 22 states are holding contests.
There's no longer enough time or money to hold long conversations with voters. Thirty-second TV ads are likely to rule.
"It's going to be closing-of-the-sale type arguments (for those who have won early contests) or a last-ditch effort to trip up front-runners" by those who haven't, says Evan Tracey, CEO of the media-tracking firm TNSMI/CMAG.
Republican Ron Paul is newly flush; the long shot remains in single digits in national polls but reports raising about $17 million in the fourth quarter of 2007, most of it over the Internet.
With no precedent of a single day with so many primaries, campaign strategists are struggling to figure out which states to target, and how. Included are some of the nation's most expensive media markets in California and the Northeast. One option: Ads on cable TV or syndicated radio programs that offer a nationwide audience.
And will any campaign sink millions into a Super Bowl XLII ad on Sunday, Feb. 3?
No one is likely to be saving for the future, Tracey says. He offers a ballpark estimate of $50 million to $60 million in ads targeting Feb. 5 states.
"There's definitely a you-can't-take-it-with-you, one-day-sale type dynamic," he says.
Feb. 5 This time, it's really super'
In 1988, nine Southern states scheduled primaries on the same date in March to try to increase the region's political clout. A few other states joined "Super Tuesday" in 1992. By 2000, there were 16 contests on the biggest primary day ever held - until now.This time, 22 states from every region of the country have moved their contests up to Feb. 5, the first date the parties permit them to use without penalty. That's so many contests that the old "super" label no longer seems sufficient. Feb. 5 has been dubbed, among other things, as "Tsunami Tuesday" for the flood of results that may well sweep the political landscape. For some candidates, it could amount to a double or nothing bet.
"Super-Duper Tuesday is everything," says Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist who ran Al Gore's 2000 campaign. She calls it "the key strategic moment" that will cap "the most intense month in American politics" - until, presumably, the last month of the general election campaign in October. Republicans will debate in California on Jan. 30; Democrats on Jan. 31.
Divided results could keep the nominations roiling for weeks or months, prompting a pitched delegate-by-delegate fight. But history suggests that a candidate in each party is likely to win decisively enough to effectively seal the nomination, even if a rival or two continues to campaign.
If the winners are clear, brace yourself: The earliest and shortest battle for the nominations in modern times will give way to the longest general-election campaign in U.S. history.
No comments:
Post a Comment