Do Political Endorsements Matter?

I thought this was a very interesting article and something we discussed in class, so take a look at it! Have a good weekend everyone, only one more week till break!

-Shan Desai

The Oprah Factor in Campaign '08

Do Political Endorsements Matter?

From: To:

Hillary Clinton continues to lead Barack Obama by a wide margin in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. But Obama has something Clinton doesn't have – the support of Oprah Winfrey. Winfrey endorsed Obama in May of this year and recently held a fundraiser for him at her Malibu, Calif. home. While political endorsements generally have little impact on voter preferences, there is no telling whether Winfrey can do for Obama what she has done for the countless books and products she's endorsed over the years.

When compared with several other celebrities and public figures, Winfrey is more influential than most, ranking on a par with Bill Gates and slightly behind Alan Greenspan. But most Americans say endorsements by celebrities and other well-known figures, including Oprah, would not affect their voting decisions: Nearly seven-in-ten Americans (69%) say that if they heard Winfrey was supporting a presidential candidate it would not influence their vote. And among those who do see an impact, the net expected effects are so mixed as to cancel each other out: Among the 30% who say they would be influenced by a Winfrey endorsement, 15% say they would be more likely to vote for the candidate and 15% say they would be less likely to do so. .

While most Americans say Winfrey's endorsement of a generic candidate would not influence their own vote, 60% believe her support for Obama will help his candidacy. Only 3% think her support will hurt Obama's candidacy, and 31% say it won't make any difference. Nearly two-thirds of Americans have heard about Winfrey's decision to support Obama – 16% have heard a lot, 46% have heard a little.

The most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index tested the potential impact of 14 individuals and institutions, including Winfrey, on voter preferences in the coming presidential election. State governors are the most influential – 37% say their governor's endorsement might affect their vote. But the impact of their endorsement is decidedly mixed. While 19% say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate their governor endorsed, almost exactly as many (18%) said this endorsement would make them less likely to support the candidate.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is one of only two individuals tested in the poll who had a net positive impact on potential voters. While 65% of the public said an endorsement from Greenspan wouldn't affect their voting choice, 18% said it would make them more likely to support a candidate (14% said less likely). Republicans are more likely than Democrats to see a Greenspan endorsement as a plus.

Religious leaders have a positive impact on voters as well: 18% say an endorsement from their minister, priest or rabbi would make them more likely to vote for a candidate (12% say less likely). Clergy influence is especially potent among Republicans. Fully 27% say they would be positively influenced by a clergy endorsement. This compares with only 17% of Democrats.

A local newspaper's endorsement of a candidate would also have a mixed impact on the public – 14% would be influenced positively, 14% negatively. Microsoft chairman Bill Gates has a similarly mixed impact: 13% of the public say a Gates endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, 14% say it would have the opposite effect.

Endorsements from the remaining individuals in the poll, all celebrities of one kind or another, would have a net negative though limited impact on the public. Bill O'Reilly, host of The O'Reilly Factor on Fox News, elicited the strongest reaction. Nearly a third of the public said an endorsement from O'Reilly would influence their vote choice – 21% said it would have a negative impact, 11% said positive. Not surprisingly, the responses were divided along partisan lines: 26% of Republicans said if O'Reilly supported a candidate, they would be more likely to vote for that candidate. This compares with only 5% of Democrats.

An endorsement from Daily Show host Jon Stewart, while having a limited impact on the general public, would influence a significant number of young people. Among those under age 30, 23% say if Stewart endorsed a candidate they would be more likely to vote for that candidate. This compares with only 6% among those ages 30 and older.

Oprah's Audience

In spite of the continued growth of her media empire, the potential impact of an endorsement from Oprah Winfrey remains about where it was eight years ago. In January 2000, 14% of the public said Winfrey's support for a presidential candidate would influence them positively, 11% said it would influence them negatively, and 72% said it would have no impact on their vote choice.

Today blacks and young people are the most likely to be influenced by Winfrey's opinion. Fully 28% of blacks say an endorsement from Winfrey would make them more likely to support a candidate, 16% say less likely and 55% say it would make no difference. Among whites, 12% would be influenced positively by Winfrey, 16% negatively and 71% wouldn't be influenced at all. Among young people, nearly half say if Winfrey were supporting a candidate it would affect their vote choice. However, they are split about evenly in terms of whether they would follow Winfrey's lead (26%) or reject her chosen candidate (23%). Women would see a Winfrey endorsement as a net positive, while men would view it as a negative, though the differences are not dramatic.

An endorsement by Winfrey would have a positive impact on many Democrats: 23% say they would be more likely to vote for Winfrey's chosen candidate (13% say less likely). Even so, 64% say Winfrey's support would have no impact on their vote.

COURTESY OF http://pewresearch.org/pubs/598/oprah-obama-endorsement